The shape of wars to come; The Sunday Times; February 7, 2010

Michael Smith

THE NEW THEATRE OF BATTLE — CYBERSPACE: The increasing dependence of western states on technology will make them vulnerable to “catastrophic” cyber attacks from other countries, terrorists and criminals, according to defence analysts. A report last week by the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, a Ministry of Defence think tank, on the possible threats facing Britain over the next 30 years paints a picture of “cyber warriors” fighting wars remotely across the internet and destroying the computer networks that carry their opponents’ most vital information. “Some actors will identify the cyber vulnerability of potential adversaries and recognise that exploiting such vulnerabilities in times of conflict is less expensive than conventional warfare, and more difficult to detect, attribute and prove,” it says. The report, published in conjunction with last week’s defence green paper, says China and Russia are already at the forefront of such attacks, with the mass cyber attacks on Estonia in 2007 and Georgia in 2008 just a taste of what is to come. Private firms such as Google have also experienced attacks. The UK military will have to develop an offensive cyber capability of its own to pre-empt the assaults on British military computer systems that are already “a daily reality”, another part of the green paper says. In some cases the only protection against them will be to roll up the old communications networks and replace them with new ones. The threat is not just to military command and control systems. Cyber attacks are capable of knocking out supplies of power, food and water as well as domestic communications networks. Britain’s joint intelligence committee warned ministers a year ago that Chinese parts bought by BT for the UK’s new telecommunications network could be used to shut down Britain by crippling its telecoms and utilities. The intelligence chiefs said it was impossible to say whether the Chinese parts in BT’s network were being used to collect intelligence, since they had “only limited understanding of our adversaries’ attack capability”. Such a lack of expertise is a real problem. John Chipman, director-general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “There is little appreciation internationally of how to assess cyber conflict. We are now, in relation to cyber warfare, at the same stage of intellectual development as we were in the 1950s in relation to nuclear war.”

The online version of the report can be found on the following address:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7017806.ece

Back to Main Menu....